Thu 02/27/2014

Hi all,

We hope you are enjoying a great draft season.  It’s looking like quite the deep class.

As you have probably noticed, our posts stopped around playoff time.  Because of other endeavors, we were unable to continue devoting the time to finding great NFL writing at the scope and quality our readers had come to expect.  So, for now, we bid you farewell and thanks for all of the support. 

4:48 pm Link to:Farewell for now from Hot Reads

Fri 12/06/2013

.@SI_PeterKing (MMQB) gives part three of his behind the scenes look at the lives of NFL officials.  Looks at pregame rituals.  Link

2:59 pm Link to:Peter King Behind the Scenes of NFL Officiating Part 3

.@MikeTanier (SOE) w his wk14 Game Riffs.  Says wk14 will provide a lot of clarity for playoff races, home field advantage, and quarterback futures.  Link

2:45 pm Link to:Mike Tanier Week 14 Game Riffs

PFF has 3 key matchups to focus on for every week 14 NFL game.  Link

2:30 pm Link to:Pro Football Focus Week 14 Three To Focus On

.@fbgchase (FP) provides the wk13 Game Scripts.  6 teams won with negative Game Scripts.  Link

2:15 pm Link to:NFL Week 13 Game Scripts

.@billbarnwell (GD) writes that the Texans will turn it around quicker than you think.  The potential number one pick, regression to the mean, turnover luck adjusting, injury issues point the arrow up.  Link

2:00 pm Link to:Houston Texans Will Turn It Around More Quickly Than You Think

Thu 12/05/2013

.@Andy_Benoit  (MMQB) says Cam Newton could take another step by emulating Drew Brees’s pocket presence & precision accuracy.  Link

Cam Newton Could Take Next Step By Emulating Drew Brees

7:42 am Link to:Cam Newton Could Take Next Step By Emulating Drew Brees

.@Adv_NFL_Stats (for NYT) w the wk14 Game Probabilities. Redskins over Chiefs?!  Link

7:00 am Link to:Advanced NFL Stats Week 14 Game Probabilities

Wed 12/04/2013

The @Adv_NFL_Stats podcast has Pete Palmer(Hidden game of Football) on to discuss expected points, win percentages, his work with Patriots, and his book. Pod

3:45 pm Link to:Advanced NFL Stats Podcast:  Pete Palmer

.@MikeTanier (SOE) scouts the NFL’s mystery QBs:  Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, Scott Tolzien, Matt McGloin, Thad Lewis, Kellen Clemons, Matt Flynn.  Link

NFLs Mystery Quarterbacks

3:30 pm Link to:NFL’s Mystery Quarterbacks

.@ReubenFB (DS) (w an assist from ANS) looks at how NFL teams are progressing/regressing.  Patriots, Rams, Eagles, Cardinals all making a positive move on O.  On D, Bengals w the biggest boost.  Link

NFL Teams Progressing/Regressing

3:15 pm Link to:NFL Teams Progressing/Regressing

.@FO_ASchatz w the wk13 DVOA rankings.  Seahawks, Broncos, Panther, Saints, Patriots top 5.  Link

2:59 pm Link to:Football Outsiders Week 13 NFL DVOA

.@billbarnwell (GD) gave his 3/4 season awards.  MVP: Peyton Manning.  OPOY: Calvin Johnson.  DPOY: Robert Mathis.  OROY: Eddie Lacy.  DROY: Tyrann Mathieu.  Coach: Andy Reid.  Comeback: Terrell Suggs.  Link

2:50 pm Link to:NFL 3/4 Season Awards

.@SI_PeterKing (MMQB) embedded himself w NFL referee Gene Steratore’s officiating crew looking at the pressures and responsibilities that come with the territory.  Link 

2:37 pm Link to:Peter King Behind the Scenes With NFL Officiating Crew

Tue 12/03/2013

.@billbarnwell (GD) gives his wk13 Thank You For Not Coaching–looking at all the big calls good and bad.  Another notch on Riverboat Ron’s 4th&1 belt.  TYFNC favorite Marc Trestman turns goat by kicking on 2nd down.  And the Dolphins put on a display of aggression at the end of the half.  Link

2:04 pm Link to:Week 13 NFL Thank You For Not Coaching

.@DonBanks (SI) gives the latest on NFL coaches on hot seat.  Gary Kubiak, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak, Rex Ryan, Greg Schiano, Mike Shanahan, Joe Philbin, Dennis Allen, Jason Garrett, Jim Schwartz, Mike Smith, Tom Coughlin all to varying degrees.  Link

1:15 pm Link to:NFL Coaches on Hot Seat 12/3/13

.@Adv_NFL_Stats with the 3rd part of its epicseries on momentum, looking at whether teams fared worse after turning over ball on downs.  But Win Probability after failing follows almost exactly expected win probability (if anything maybe skewing slightly better than expected.  Link

12:59 pm Link to:NFL Advanced Stats On Momentum (After Failed 4th Down)

.@fbgchase (FP) has a new system for analyzing historical seasons using Strength of Schedule.  Looks at how the team fared against all of their opponents compared to rest of league (using point differential).  99 Rams and 72 Dolphins did in fact have wk schedules but Rams still were a historic team.  Link

12:45 pm Link to:NFL Historical Strength of Schedule

.@FO_VVerhei reviews who was most valuable wk 13.  It was WR day and they gave edge to Eric Decker followed by Alshon Jeffery and then Josh Gordon.  Link

12:30 pm Link to:NFl Week 13 Football Outsiders Most Valuable Per DYAR

.@SI_PeterKing (MMQB) says Seahawks depth came through Monday vs Saints.  Clinton McDonald, KJ Wright, Byron Maxwell–little used players contributing (successfully) as starters.   Link

While @SI_JimTrotter says Seahawks confidence they’re biggest attribute (buoyed by crowd).  Link

12:15 pm Link to:Monday Morning Quarterback on Seahawks Saints Monday Night

.@realrobertmays (GD) says Nick Foles the real deal.  Decision making, tempo more important than athleticism, though he has shown more mobility than in college.  Just did it vs top defense in Cardinals to quell competition doubts.  Link

11:59 am Link to:Nick Foles: the Real Deal

PFF w their ReFocused–three performances of not for every team, every game.  Link

11:45 am Link to:Pro football Focus ReFocused Week 13

Mon 12/02/2013

.@MikeTanier (SOE) says it’s not advisable to kick FG on 3rd down.  Even taking turnovers and botched snaps/holds into account, doesn’t outweigh added win probability of getting closer (1.6% per yd gained).  Link

NFL Teams Shouldnt Kick Field Goals on 3rd Down
3:30 pm Link to:NFL Teams Shouldn’t Kick Field Goals on 3rd Down

.@billbarnwell (GD) looks at notable happenings from NFL wk13.  Redskins have no one to blame but selves for final drive.  Also looks at playoff shakeout & Josh Gordon’s further emergence.  Link

3:30 pm Link to:Grantland Bill Barnwell: NFL Week 13 Happenings

.@GregABedard (MMQB) bemoans the lack of consistency from officiating, specifically defensive holding calls in Cardinals Eagles and Broncos Chiefs gms.  Link

NFL Officiating Lacks Consistency

3:15 pm Link to:NFL Officiating Lacks Consistency

@Chet_G (RW) reviews wk13 in Fantasy Football.  Josh Gordon doubling down and more on Alshon Jeffery, Eric Decker, Adrian Peterson, Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis, Ben Tate, CJ Spiller, Nick Foles.  Link

2:59 pm Link to:Fantasy Football: Week 13 Review

The @fboutsiders staff has their wk13 audibles: looking at games as they happened.  Ryan Fitzpatrick single handedly lost gm for Titans.  Link

2:45 pm Link to:Football Outsiders Week 13 Audibles

.@MikeTanier’s Mandatory Monday gives some ultimatums for contending teams.  Chiefs must evolve on D; Jets: simplify passing gm; Bears: stop the run; Cardinals: protect Carson Palmer; Patriots: start faster; Broncos: eliminate mistakes.  Link

2:20 pm Link to:Mike Tanier Mandatory Monday Week 13: Ultimatums

The PFF staff gave their reactions to wk13 as the games unfolded, also give best & worst 3 performers for every gm.  Link

2:05 pm Link to:Pro Football Focus Week 13 Reaction Blog

.@SI_PeterKing’s MMQB looks at Nick Foles’s season, the Redskins Giants officiating snafu, gives his Fine Fifteen, and week 13 awards.  Link

1:52 pm Link to:Peter King Monday Morning Quarterback Week 13

Wed 11/27/2013

.@BillSimmons (GD) gets us ready for Thanksgiving w a week 13 mailbag and picks against the line.  Has Packers, Cowboys, Ravens on Thanksgiving. Link

4:45 pm Link to:Bill Simmons Thanksgiving Mailbag and Picks

.@MatthewBerryTMR gives a Thanksgiving Fantasy Football Survival Guide in his Week 13 Love/Hate.  Love: Rashad Jennings, Packers WRs, Torrey Smith, Ravens/Steelers D.  Hate:  Ray Rice, Le’Veon Bell.  Link

4:25 pm Link to:Fantasy Football: Matthew Berry Thanksgiving Love/Hate

.@SI_DougFarrar goes All-22 on how Todd Bowles’s creativity has made the Cardinals the NFL’s best D.  Link

Film Room: Arizona Cardinals NFLs Best Defense

4:05 pm Link to:Film Room: Arizona Cardinals NFL’s Best Defense

.@Adv_NFL_Stats examines whether Bill Belichick was correct to kick off in OT.  Only needed about 6% wind effect on Win Probability to justify.  Passing Yards Per Attempt don’t seem to support–actually better against wind.  But, could have come down to how Brady felt and what he told Belichick. 

Our take:  what about affect on FGs?

3:30 pm Link to:Bill Belichick Kicking Off in Overtime

.@billbarnwell (GD) gets us ready for Thanksgiving football with a viewing guide.  Talks Calvin Johnson commercial, Aaron Rodgers’s moustache, Matt McGloin, much more.  Link

3:15 pm Link to:

.@TheEisenPodcast has @GillianJacobs, @realjknoxville, @DennisDMZ on to discuss wk 12 & 13 and more.  Pod

2:59 pm Link to:Rich Eisen Podcast: Dennis Miller, Johnny Knoxville, Gillian Jacobs

.@MikeTanier (SOE) gives his wk 13 Game Riffs.  Seahawks to have a jolly Christmas season, RGIII doing a Jimmy Stewart impression, Ryan Tannehill tries not to be trampled by the Christmas rush.  Link

  Mike Tanier Week 13 NFL Game Riffs

2:45 pm Link to:Mike Tanier Week 13 NFL Game Riffs

.@Adv_NFL_Stats has both their wk 13 game probabilities as well as their team efficiency rankings.  Saints, Seahawks, Broncos, Eagles, Bengals top 5 in efficiency.  Efficiency Probabilities

Advanced NFL Stats Team Efficiency Rankings & Game Probabilities Week 13
2:30 pm Link to:Advanced NFL Stats Team Efficiency Rankings & Game Probabilities Week 13

Tue 11/26/2013

.@BryanBroaddus warns Cowboys might have hands full with Raiders.  Young QB, hard RB, sizable D Line.  With Cowboys’ struggles to stop run, Rashad Jennings not what they want to face.  A load with the ball in his hands.  Link

1:12 pm Link to:Cowboys Will Have Hands Full with Raiders

.@ChrisBurke_SI looks at some NFL Draft 2014 risers and fallers based on last week’s action.  Rising: Ryan Shazier, Tracy Moore, Andre Williams, Allen Hurns, Tom Savage.  Falling: Damien Williams, Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota.  Link

12:30 pm Link to:2014 NFL Draft Risers and Fallers 11/26/13

The @Adv_NFL_Stats Podcast has Berkeley prof David Romer on to discuss why tms should go for it more on 4th down but how coaches are incentivized for sub optimal decisions.  Pod

11:59 am Link to:NFL Advanced Stat Podcast: David Romer & 4th Down Decisions

.@realrobertmays (GD) wonders what the Hell happened to RGIII/Redskins.  RGIII hasn’t been the same but neither has D, which buoyed last yr’s late season run.  Has made them run less despite continued success.  Mediocre WR corp doesn’t allow for shootout style.  Link

11:30 am Link to:What the Hell Happened to RGIII & Redskins?

.@adamlevitan (RW) looks at the Fantasy Football Waiver wire, where there are some late season treats.  Jay Cutler, Michael Crabtree, Dennis Pitta, Montee Ball, Benjy Cunningham might be worth taking a shot at.  Link

11:15 am Link to:Fantasy Football: Rotoworld Waiver Wired Week 13

.@TheMikeRidley (FO) analyzes Buccaneers vs Lions in Any Given Sunday.  Mike Glennon developing consistency.  Especially good on deep ball.  Comp% was 58.6 1st 4 gms, 70.5 last 4.  Not turning ball over.  Lions.  As for Stafford, 2 of picks from inaccuracy, 2 from forcing ball.  Link

10:59 am Link to:Football Outsiders Any Given Sunday: Lions VS Buccaneers

.@fbgchase (FP) looks at every Joe Flacco INT this yr: some luck, some bad throws, some great D.  Has gone from better than avg INT rate first 5 yrs to top 7 highest this yr in rate and total.  Line/running gm, Flacco pressing cuz of contract might be in play.  But, a deep and inaccurate passer–maybe this is more of who he is & previous yrs luck.  Link

10:45 am Link to:Joe Flacco’s Interceptions: Breaking Down Every INT of 2013

PFF has all the NFL wk12 action Re-Focused–3 performances of note, every team, every game.  Link

10:29 am Link to:Pro Football Focus NFL Week 12

Mon 11/25/2013

.@BillSimmons & @TheCousinSal (GD) review NFL Week 12 action, guess week 13 lines.  Pod

3:45 pm Link to:BS Report NFL Podcast: Week 13 Lines

.@RotoPat (RW) reviews Fantasy Football impact of wk 12 action.  Don’t trust Stevan Ridley.  Three up: Mike Glennon, Josh Gordon, Nate Burleson.  Three down: Case Keenum, Trent Richardson, Ray Rice.  Link

3:30 pm Link to:Fantasy Football Week 12 Review

.@MikeTanier (SOE) says seven ugly gms could have major NFL implications.  Dolphins-Steelers, Cowboys-Bears, Packers-Cowboys, Bears-Eagles, Cardinals-Titans, Ravens-Lions, Bengals-Chargers.  Link

3:15 pm Link to:Seven Ugly NFL Games with Playoff Implications

The @fboutsiders staff w their wk 12 Audibles, a real time discussion during Sunday’s action.  Link

2:59 pm Link to:Football Outsiders Week 12 Audibles
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