Fri 05/24/2013

.@StephStradley (Houston Chronicle) reviews Texans first week of OTAs.  RG Brandon Brooks looks great after shedding serious weight.  Jonathan Joseph looks healthy, playing back pocket coverage.  Case Keenum battling TJ Yates for #2 QB seems to be a media creation.  Position battles on right side of O Line, WR after 1/2, & 3rd RB.  And more.  Link

4:28 pm Link to:Texans First Week of OTAs

.@VincentFrankNFL (PFF) says you shouldn’t reach for a TE in fantasy football.  With Gronkowski’s injury concerns & Jimmy Graham’s drop in production as well as several mid tier guys likely to see an increase (including Vernon Davis w/o Crabtree to vulture receptions & Jared Cook no longer restricted by Titans O), the gap has tightened and better value can be found late.  Link

3:45 pm Link to:2013 Fantasy Football: Wait on Tight Ends

NFL.com boils down the 2012 NFL season to 6 minutes of highlights.  Video

3:23 pm Link to:2012 NFL Season in Six Minutes

.@footballfacts (CHFF) w the latest NFL team win total over/unders in Vegas.  Broncos, Patriots, 49ers highest w 11.5.  Seahawks, Packers, Texans next at 10.5.  Jaguars at the bottom w 5.  Link

12:50 pm Link to:Vegas NFL Team Win Total Over Unders 5/24/13

.@OliverBThomas (BR) says Patriots going through “rampant youth movement,” not just turnover of years’ past.  At one point last October they were 5th youngest tm, should be younger after FA and draft.  Perhaps best example yet of Belichick’s use of value and need.  At this point, the value aspect still to be determined.  LinkNew England Patriots Undergoing Rampant Youth Movement

12:05 pm Link to:New England Patriots Undergoing Rampant Youth Movement

.@SheilKapadia (Philly Mag) talked to Eagles new DC Billy Davis, who emphasized multiple looks & appearance of pressure over heavy blitzing.  Coy when talking about system, also says still finding out what players can do personnel will dictate.  But made one thing clear:  he “doesn’t want offenses to know what the Eagles are going to do when they’re evaluating the defense pre-snap.” So if only 3 down linemen, it’s more to mask who/if is 4th lineman.  Link

11:50 am Link to:Eagles Defense Under Billy Davis to be Disguised

.@PFF_NateJahnke tabs Brad Jones as the Packers’ Secret Superstar.  After injuries, finally got a shot and proved very competent in every aspect.  Good vs run game, making tackles at or behind line (esp QBs); also solid in pass D, getting a Pass Defensed on 6.8% of targets (7th) and tackling w/o YAC even when a reception made.  4.6 coverage grade 4th for M/ILBs.  Despite glut of ILBs, Jones should get to return as starter.  Link

11:35 am Link to:Packers Secret Superstar:  Brad Jones

.@MikeSilver (YH) says Carson Palmer reborn w Cardinals.  He loves coach Bruce Arians.  He “really loves” him he emphasizes.  After ending last season getting a tube stuck into his collapsed lung just to see his daughters on Christmas, its a refreshing new start.  His numbers were better than you thought (4018 yds, 61.8 comp %, 22 TD, 12 INT).  And his teammates and front office love him back.  Link

Carson Palmer Reborn with Cardinals

11:20 am Link to:Carson Palmer Reborn with Cardinals

.@PFF_Neil examines says after closer scrutiny, it appears Jared Allen has reason to stick to guns re contract.  To make$17m n last year of back loaded deal.  Didn’t have the highest numbers except one: percentage of pass rush snaps, where he blew everyone at  away.  Equivalent of a full game more than anyone in NFL.  Still ranked 16th in pass rush productivity for 4-3 DEs, remarkable w little rest.  If you’re going to pay a DE, you might as well get money worth in Allen.  Link

11:05 am Link to:Jared Allen Right to Not Renogiate Contract

.@analf17 (BR) looks at path to NFL GM.  Most common route via scouting, w business men/lawyers, Players, coaches following behind (Rick Smith only coach).  Scouts also have the most linear path through ranks, whereas others have to jump around to earn their stripes.  Perhaps more of an emphasis on analytics will open up even more doors.  Link

NFL General Managers: Path to the Job

NFL General Managers: Path to the Job
 
10:50 am Link to:NFL General Managers: Path to the Job

.@Cianaf (PSR) says w rest of division loading up, Cardinals fighting back with Nickel Package.  Daryl Washington & new addition Karlos Dansby LBs who can go side line to sideline and cover big TEs.  Draft pick Tyrann Mathieu can cover fast slot WRs, has flexibility to play FS.  Or they can go w two nickel backs and put in recently acquired Javier Arenas.  Link

8:30 am Link to:Arizona Cardinals Fight Back With Nickel

.@nfldraftscout looks at how scouts evaluate NFL Tight Ends.  Know your scheme (most important aspect), Hands, Blocking (teachable if willing), Athletic Ability (combine explosive number a good basis), Route Running, Toughness.  Link

  NFL Tight Ends: How Scouts Evaluate

7:45 am Link to:NFL Tight Ends: How Scouts Evaluate

Benjamin Alamar looks at difference between Analytics & Moneyball.  Analytics a set of tools, Moneyball just one strategy to use said tools.  Analytics involves tools of data gathering, data management, statistical analysis, data visualization and information systems to deliver better information, more efficiently.  Moneyball a way to use that to find undervalued players.  For example, Spurs & Mavericks both use analytics: Spurs in a moneyball front office way while the Mavs inserted an analytics assistant coach for in gm decisions.  Link

7:00 am Link to:Analytics vs Moneyball

Thu 05/23/2013

.@MarcSesslerNFL looks at 5 NFL scheme changes to watch.  Tabs Browns, Bills, Jets, Cardinals, Bears.  Link

4:15 pm Link to:NFL Scheme Changes to Watch

.@CaptainComeback looks at what the Rams can do to take next step.  Obviously starts w Sam Bradford, who must prove in 4th yr that he’s the man.  Weapons around him (whether added or more developed) should help, especially in yards after the catch.  Protection should be better (Not just the addition of Jake Long but also Barrett Jones).  Young defense needs to continue to grow and 1st round LB Alec Ogletree should help.  Link

3:55 pm Link to:St. Louis Rams: How They Can Improve

.@PFF_Gordon says Joique Bell is the Lions’ Secret Superstar.  A missed tackle machine, avgd 2.99 yds after contact/carry, forced 15 missed tackles on 52 receptions.  Reggie Bush signing curious as he was a similar player yet not as effective w an elusiveness rating less than half than that of Bell.  Link

3:42 pm Link to:Lions Secret Superstar: Joique Bell

.@SigmundBloom (TFG) is joined by @MattWaldman & @fbgchase to talk about the effect of statistics and analytics in Fantasy Football on his On the Couch Podcast.

1:45 pm Link to:Fantasy Football Podcast:  Use of Statistics & Analytics

.@PFF_Ben profiles Aldon Smith’s pass rush.  More peaks and valleys than Watt, Miller, Atkins keeps him step below.  But, he’s proving he can play run and occasionally cover.  Pass rushing, his strength is inside as he gets pressure every 23.3 passes.  His weakness is reliance on Justin Smith and the uncertainty of his ability to perform without him.  Link

Aldon Smiths Pass Rush

1:30 pm Link to:Aldon Smith’s Pass Rush

.@DaveMSiebert (BR) gives a doctor’s perspective on Michael Crabtree’s Achilles injury.  Plantarflexion occurs anytime toe extended, and Achilles vital to that (strongest and largest tendon).  Most likely, when he planted, the ground forced his extended tended back up, eventually tearing.  Most likely tendonitis, deconditioning, or unknown injury contributed.  6 month recovery likely, but controversial treatment  platelet rich plasma could conceivably expedite.  Link

Michael Crabtrees Injury:  A Doctors Take

1:15 pm Link to:Michael Crabtree’s Injury:  A Doctor’s Take

.@seanldonovan breaks down Dolphins use of Read Option w Tannehill.  Not a big sample size, but certainly enough tape to examine.  Highlighted by using it ten times vs Bills w great success, including a 31 yd run by Tannehill.  Puts play makers in space, pressure on defense’s reaction to formations, and Tannehill plenty fast/smart enough.  Link

Film Room: Ryan Tannehill & Read Option

1:01 pm Link to:Film Room: Ryan Tannehill & Read Option

.@smcindoe (GD) describes the 20 types of depressed sports fan.  The wall puncher, the single F Bomb fan, the superstitious fan, the one who’s maybe crying, the “I knew it” guy, the one that goes for a walk, the over the top meltdown fan, the catatonic fan, and more.  Which one are you?  Link

8:30 am Link to:20 Types of Depressed Sports Fans

.@TheEisenPodcast talks to Brian Urlacher about retirement.  He says he wasn’t same player, has ZERO urge to return.  In fact, seems downright giddy to have moved on.  Perhaps had Lovie Smith still been there, he says he would have come back.  Pod

8:00 am Link to:Rich Eisen Podcast Talks to Brian Urlacher About Retirement

.@PriscoCBS w a long Q&A w Peyton Manning.  Peyton says he’s stronger, more comfortable than last yr.  Admits he was uncomfortable in the Falcons gm as it was his first road gm back (should have played one in preseason).  His first rehab throw (w Todd Helton) went literally 4 yds.  But, this year healthy and doesn’t even do monthly health reports he previously did.  Link

7:30 am Link to:Peyton Manning Stronger, More Comfortable Heading into 2013

.@ClarkJudgeCBS w an extensive interview Browns new CEO Joe Banner, who says he took the job BECAUSE it was such a challenge.  Says they are committed to building for long term (unlike previous reguimes), but that doesn’t mean they can’t improve in the meantime.  But, will try to make sure FA acquisitions young enough to be around when team is good again.  Says they don’t know if Brandon Weeden the answer at QB but like what they see.  Link

7:00 am Link to:Cleveland Browns CEO Joe Banner Q & A

Wed 05/22/2013

.@MikeSilver (YH) says Brian Urlacher’s retirement was a matter of pride.  Could have waited out free agency and found a low level deal, but attacked the situation like he did on the field, unwilling to give in.  Link

3:45 pm Link to:Brian Urlacher’s Retirement a Matter of Pride

.@PFF_Neil says Charles Woodson was a better fit w Raiders than Broncos.  Last year became more of traditional Free Safety, which is taken by Rahim Moore in Denver.  Also says Max Starks provides insurance for the Chargers.  Link

3:30 pm Link to:NFL Free Agent Moves: Charles Woodson and Max Starks

.@evansilva (RW) looks at fallout from Michael Crabtree injury.  Shifts balance of power in NFC West to Seahawks.  Crabtree’s best case is to come off PUP after 6 weeks, but even that unlikely.  Kaepernick’s fantasy value down.  Vernon Davis may take on bigger role along with the run game.  Link

3:15 pm Link to:Michael Crabtree Injury Fallout

.@PFF_Steve tabs Bruce Carter as the Cowboys’ Secret Superstar.  5th among ILBs in tackling efficiency.  Picked up slack in Sean Lee’s absence.  The future might be even brighter as he moves to weakside 4-3 OLB, a better fit.  Link

2:59 pm Link to:Dallas Cowboys Secret Superstar: Bruce Carter

.@CaptainComeback (BR) looks at traits of NFL Dynasties, wondering who might be next.  Stellar quarterback/Coach combo the first requirement, followed by roster depth.  49ers are a candidate but showed defense is vulnerable with Justin Smith aging.  Seahawks are the best bet because of their collection of young talent.  Link

Seattle Seahawks Next NFL Dynasty?
2:48 pm Link to:Seattle Seahawks Next NFL Dynasty?

.@danpompei (NFP) reviews offseasons in NFC South.  Most improved: Buccaneers.  Biggest vet move: Darrelle Revis.  Best draft pick: Desmond Trufant.  Best under the radar move: Keenan Lewis.  Link

1:20 pm Link to:NFC South 2013 Offseason Review

.@tyschalter puts together the ultimate NFL Quarterback using parts of current players.  Drew Brees’s feet, Russell Wilson’s legs, Cam Newton’s torso, Aaron Rodgers’s arm, Matthew Stafford’s hand, Colin Kaepernick’s non throwing arm, Ben Roethlisberger’s sixth sense, Peyton Manning’s head.  Link

1:00 pm Link to:Designing the Ultimate NFL Quarterback

.@ClarkJudgeCBS says Rams finally put some pieces around Sam Bradford (Austin & Bailey, Long, Jones).  Without those pieces, Bradford still had higher rating than Cutler, Luck, Stafford.  With stellar defense and some offensive support, he’s ready to take over as leader and make Rams third elite team in division.  Link

12:50 pm Link to:Sam Bradford ready to Lead Rams

.@daverichard (CBS) looks at 2013 NFL draft’s impact on veterans for Fantasy Football purposes.  Biggest winners: Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory, Steve Johnson, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford.  Losers: Willis McGahee, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Rashard Mendenhall, Jermaine Gresham, Isaiah Pead.  Link

12:40 pm Link to:Fantasy Football:  Draft Picks’ Effects on Veterans

.@SteveDrake_ (Sports + Numbers) looks at whether draft picks who teams trade up for fare any better than others at their draft slot.  The presumption when a team trades up is that the player they are taking is undervalued at that spot.  However, those players don’t seem to achieve success at a higher level than their draft slot warrants historically, so it appears overall the compensation sacrificed isn’t worth it.  Link

NFL Draft: Trading Up Doesnt Lead to Better Picks
12:10 pm Link to:NFL Draft: Trading Up Doesn’t Lead to Better Picks

.@fbgchase (FP) examines the evolution of NFL fullback from key cog to specialized role.  Once a glamour position w Super Bowl MVPs, carry leaders, and high draft picks, the passing game, bigger D Linemen, athletic TEs have pushed them into the fringes of specialized player.  Now, FBs are specialists: pure blocker (Vontae Leach), pass catchers (James Casey), rushers (Mike Tolbert), goal line (John Kuhn).  Link

Evolution of NFL Fullback From Cog to Specialized

8:00 am Link to:Evolution of NFL Fullback From Cog to Specialized

.@TheEisenPodcast (NFL) talked to 49ers CEO Jed York about getting Super Bowl to San Francisco, and then goes to the entertainment industry talking to Jason Bateman about Arrested Development, Rob Lowe about the Colts and “Behind the Candelabra.”  Link

7:00 am Link to:Rich Eisen Podcast: Jed York & 49ers Super Bowl

Tue 05/21/2013

.@PFF_Ben profiles Jason Pierre-Paul.  More to the story than falling sack total.  Best run defending 4-3 DE in game, good at batting down passes.  Pass rushing, his strength is inside pass rush, weakness outside.  Outside pass rush a real concern because closes down his strength inside.  Link

Jason Pierre Pauls Pass Rush

3:00 pm Link to:Jason Pierre Paul’s Pass Rush

.@Score_Tomlinson (100YR) says Matthew Stafford has been devalued in Fantasy Football and that creates opportunity.  Stats dropped because of mechanics as well as lack of dependable non Calvin Johnson targets.  But, still has upside of 2011 at price of 2012 season value.  Link

2:50 pm Link to:Fantasy Football:  Matthew Stafford’s Declining Value an Opportunity

.@realrobertmays (GD) says Andrew Luck is feeling very, very comfortable.  Another year as pro, addition of his OC from Stanford Pep Hamilton, Free Agent additions up front on line in Gosder Cherilus & Donald Thomas, maturation of his young targets.  NFL beware.  Link

2:35 pm Link to:Andrew Luck Feeling Very, Very Comfortable

.@espn_nfcwest says big changes are coming to the NFL in 2014 when teams will be allowed to use computers during games (in conjunction w a partnership w Microsoft XBox gaming systems).  Teams will be better able to calculate percentages tendencies & historical precedent.  Might be better utilized by younger coaches.  Might help facilitate greater usage of analytics in going against conventions like going for it on 4th down.  Link

2:19 pm Link to:NFL Teams Will Be Allowed to Use Computers During Games

.@ChrisTrapasso (Yahoo) says new Bills GM Doug Whaley must learn from Buddy Nix’s mistakes.  Nix had mixed results, bringing team from the bottom but not able to take next step.  Inability to find franchise QB and surround him with weapons, refusal to let go of the past ultimately doomed Nix.  But, Whaley has already been handed EJ Manuel.  A good start?  Link

1:40 pm Link to:Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley Must Learn From Nix’s Mistakes

.@espn_afcsouth says Johnathan Cyprien a pivotal player in Jaguars secondary.  Already showing great instincts though needs to be smoothed out.  Already trying to lead even though a rookie (made easier by youth surrounding him).  Gus Bradley wants all of secondary to look same on tape.  Link

1:20 pm Link to:Johnathan Cyprien Pivotal to Jacksonville Jaguars Defense

.@greggrosenthal (NFL) tabs Josh Freeman as his 10th best QB under 25.  Mobility stands out but maddeningly inconsistent even from quarter to quarter.  Next offseason could see him signing long term contract or hitting free agency, but surely some team will be interested in him as starter.  Link

1:00 pm Link to:Josh Freeman: 10th Best NFL Quarterback Under 25

.@PFF_Neil looks at how NFL quarterbacks fared under pressure in ’12.  Ben Roethlisberger & Ryan Tannehill actually better WITH pressure.  Colin Kaepernick, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker saw biggest drop off out of starters.  Link

12:50 pm Link to:NFL Quarterbacks’ Performance Under Pressure

.@FO_RiversMcCown looks at biggest post draft holes in NFC North.  Bears: Wide Receiver.  Lions: Offensive Line.  Packers: O Line.  Vikings: Middle Linebacker.  Link

12:40 pm Link to:NFC North:  Biggest Post NFL Draft Holes

.@PFF_Pete says despite THAT play, Rahim Moore the Broncos’ secret superstar.  Allowed .46 yds/coverage snap, allowed first down or TD on only 1.64% of snaps.  But, biggest turnaround had been in tackling where he went from one of league’s worst to best (2011 missed 11 of 43; 8 of 96 in ’12).  Link

12:30 pm Link to:Denver Broncos Secret Superstar: Rahim Moore

.@BuckyBrooks (NFL) compares Andrew Luck vs Colin Kaepernick and takes Kaepernick because he thinks he’s the future of the position.  They’re even in arm talent and clutch factor, Luck better in pocket presence.  But, Kaepernick takes cake in athleticism & game management.  Influx of collegiate concepts putting emphasis on said athleticism.  Link

12:20 pm Link to:Colin Kaepernick over Andrew Luck:  The Future of NFL Quarterback

.@nfldraftscout (BR) on how he scouts Wide Receivers.  Looks at hands (breaking them down w catch chart), route running (drawing route trees for reference), quickness and agility, speed and acceleration, size, blocking.  Link

Scouting NFL Wide Receivers

Scouting NFL Wide Receivers
11:10 am Link to:Scouting NFL Wide Receivers

Mon 05/20/2013

PFF mines 2013 NFL Draft for not so obvious contributors.  Quarterback:  Geno Smith.  Running Back:  Giovanni Bernard, Mike Gillislee, Stepfan Taylor.  Link

3:50 pm Link to:Fantasy Football: 2013 NFL Draft Undheralded Steals

.@footballfacts (CHFF) says Chip Kelly must re-educate the dumbest team in NFL.  Eagles did all little things wrong in 2012.  Ranked 15th in both O & D but 29th and 30th in scoring O & D.  ranked 31st and 32nd in Scoreability (yards per score) & Bendability (yards per point allowed), metrics that put empirical figure on team intelligence.  Link

3:20 pm Link to:Philadelphia Eagles Dumbest Team in NFL in 2012
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